2020.12.25

Human mobility analysis and visualization of economic impact of Covid 19 pandemic

Research and Development by

Ryosuke SHIBASAKI, Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo / Satoru NAKAJO, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Corresponding Research Area

Simulation and designing countermeasures against possible COVID-19 resurgence: predicting spreading of infection, estimating and verifying the effectiveness of countermeasures, and predicting deman


Estimating Changes of Expenditures Attributed to Human Mobility Changes

1. Estimating change of expenditure by purpose of trip

  • Estimating change of expenditure associated with travel and non-travel from "travel trips”*1 and "non-travel trips". (Based on place of payment, year over year)
  • The expenditure associated with travel dropped sharply, however gradually recovered after the launch of “The GoTo Travel Campaign”*2.

  • After “the GoTo Travel Campaign” was launched, the expenditure on travel recovered about 80% of the previous year‘s level.
  • “The GoTo Travel Campaign” is estimated to have been effective in encouraging the expenditure associated with travel all over the country.

*1:Trips that are “more than 80 km from home” and “not a trip to workplace” are estimated as “travel trip” (including sightseeing and business trips) Trips of less than 80 km are not considered as “travel trips”.
*2:The Campaign that was launched by the Japanese government to encourage domestic travel to help local travel business.

2. Estimating change of expenditure associated with travel

  • Estimating increasing rate of expenditure associated with travel from September to October 2020. (percentage point)
  • The expenditure associated with travel increased by more than 10 percent points in October compared to July, when the GoTo Travel Campaign was launched.
  • In particular, the expenditure in Hokkaido and some areas of Chubu and Hokuriku district increased by more than 30 percentage points.

Reference  Data:LocationMind xPop (from LocationMind Inc.)
LocationMind xPop uses aggregated people flow data originally collected by NTT Docomo, Inc through their application service “Docomo Map Navi” using only the cell phone‘s location data collected upon user consent to the service’s auto GPS function, and then processed by NTT Docomo in entirety and statistically before being provided to LocationMind Inc. The original location data is GPS data (latitude, longitude) sent at a frequency of every 5 minutes at the shortest interval and does not include information that specifies individuals.

3. Estimating change of expenditure associated with retail and eating out

  • Estimating change of expenditure associated with retail and eating out from "non-travel trips". (Based on place of payment, year over year)
  • The expenditure associated with eating out dropped sharply, however gradually increased after lift the state of emergency.
  • After the launch of “the GoTo Eat Campaign”*3 in October, the expenditure increased about 80% of the previous year‘s level.

  • Regarding Tokyo area, expenditure associated with eating out in October recovered to about the same level as the previous year in suburban areas.
  • On the other hand, in central area, especially in downtown areas such as Shinjuku and Ginza and in business districts such as Marunouchi and Nihonbashi, the expenditure remains below the previous year's level. A similar tendency was seen in downtown areas such as Susukino in Sapporo City and Nakasu in Fukuoka City.

Reference  Data:LocationMind xPop (from LocationMind Inc.)
LocationMind xPop uses aggregated people flow data originally collected by NTT Docomo, Inc through their application service “Docomo Map Navi” using only the cell phone‘s location data collected upon user consent to the service’s auto GPS function, and then processed by NTT Docomo in entirety and statistically before being provided to LocationMind Inc. The original location data is GPS data (latitude, longitude) sent at a frequency of every 5 minutes at the shortest interval and does not include information that specifies individuals.

  • After “the GoTo Eat Campaign” was launched, the expenditure associated with eating out recovered about 80% of the previous year‘s level.
  • On the other hand, taking Tokyo as an example, the expenditure in downtown areas and business area remains significantly depressed. Hence, focused support for these areas seems to be necessary.

*3:The Campaign that was launched by the Japanese government to encourage eating-out and to help local restaurant business.