2020.12.04

Simulation for optimizing medical and testing resources

Research and Development by

Mitsubishi research Institute, Inc

Corresponding Research Area

Effective combination of PCR, antibody tests, and other tests necessary for improving test efficiency and reliability


Simulation for optimizing medical and testing resources (1/2)

■The project performed simulations of the use of testing and medical resources based on simulations.

  • For a population of 10 million, assuming 23 central wards of Tokyo.
  • Available hospital beds were set to be 2,450 for moderate and mild cases and 150 for severe cases (based on published figures as of Sep. 1st )

The parameters related to state transitions were set with reference to materials published by NCGM and existing papers.

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute,
in cooperation with Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communications

Simulation for optimizing medical and testing resources (2/2)

■In case low sensitivity of test (high levels of false negatives), the longer quarantine period of people tested (quarantine at home) resulted in the quicker control of virus (left side). However, if the test sensitivity is low, the infection tends to spread after releasing self-quarantine. The lower the sensitivity, the stronger the tendency.

■The project compared the infection outcomes when quarantined at the time of testing (left) and when ordinary activities were performed until results were received after the test (right).

Simulation of hospital bed usage based on testing in the 23 central wards of Tokyo (2,450 hospital beds + 150 hospital beds for severe patients)
Population of 10 million; initial number of infections 500; no super spreaders; false positive rate of 1%; false negatives (100% for 3 days after infection; average 40% for 8 days)

Number of new infections and number of inpatient hospital beds when quarantined until test results are available
(10,000 tests per day, false negatives average 40% for 8 days)
When ordinary activities are maintained after testing while waiting for results (1 day)
(tendency to come under control if 300,000 tests performed per day)

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute,
in cooperation with Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communications

Transmission can be restrained by isolating from the test till the results are received. It is suggested to increase the quarantine period for tests with low test sensitivity. When test patients are selected at random and permitted to perform ordinary activities until test results are available, it is necessary to carry out 300,000 tests per day.