2020.12.01

Multiagent model simulation: Effects of people’s gatherings, Effects of contact tracing, Effects of random tests

Research and Development by

Tatsuo UNEMI, Department of Information Systems Science, Soka University

Corresponding Research Area

Simulation and designing countermeasures against possible COVID-19 resurgence: predicting spreading of infection, estimating and verifying the effectiveness of countermeasures, and predicting deman


Multiagent model simulation:Effects of people’s gatherings

■Introduces a model of gatherings to investigate the effects on epidemic.

→Restrictions on frequency and size are effective. High frequency and large size cause the superspreading.

Courtesy of University of Tsukuba

Multiagent model simulation:Effects of contact tracing

■Records contacts, and tests them when he/she got test-positive.

It would be effective if the contact information of participants of gatherings could be recorded to make the tracing easier.

It would be effective if the mobile phone’s application software for contact tracing could filter the recording choice based-on an evaluation of infectious risk more accurately.

→In the range of capturing rate 0-10%, it reduces infectious rate by 2.8% per 1%. It makes the end earlier if the capturing rate is high enough.

Courtesy of University of Tsukuba

Multiagent model simulation:Effects of random tests

■Investigates how the tests for randomly chosen individuals are effective.

It would reduce the infectious rate at the peak time from 10% to 9.1%, if it could be possible to conduct random tests for 1% of population everyday. (If the model is not so much different from the reality.)

As the current test capacity is 100,000 persons per day, that is, less than 0.1% of the population, it may be interpreted that “it would reduce 9% of infectious rate at the peak time, if we could prepare ten times scale of facilities to conduct tests for 1,200,000 persons everyday.”

→It is effective somewhat to reduce the infectious rate at the peak time.

Courtesy of University of Tsukuba