2020.11.30

Multiagent model simulation : Prevention of infection in the downtown area

Research and Development by

Setsuya KURAHASHI, University of Tsukuba

Corresponding Research Area

Simulation and designing countermeasures against possible COVID-19 resurgence: predicting spreading of infection, estimating and verifying the effectiveness of countermeasures, and predicting deman


Prevention of infection in the downtown area

■Assessing the impact of downtown pubs and nightspot services on the spread of infection in an individual-based simulation (Modelling a city of 10,000 people based on cluster cases to assess the risk of spread of infection)

Comparison of the impact of customer service measures in the downtown area

Results

  • Hostess bar closed (A)   0.85x
  • Male host bar closed (B)   0.75x
  • Diagonal seating (C)  0.90x
  • Limited to 4 seats (D)  0.73x

Limiting the number of visitors to 4 instead of 8 is 0.73 times more effective in reducing the number of infected people.

The effect of limiting the number of people in a group is higher than the diagonal seating effect.

The effect of limiting the number of people in pubs, etc., is higher than the cancellation of hostess bars and male host bars

→Limiting the number of visitors to 4 instead of 8 is 0.73 times more effective in reducing the number of infected people.

Courtesy of University of Tsukuba

Model overview

People living in a town with a mixture of businesses, pubs, hostess bars, male host bars, and dance clubs were defined as artificial agents, and their behaviour was simulated if they took actions and measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection.

Working Households
Single (adult) : 2,000
Single (youth) : 500
Couple : 1,500
Couple and 1 child : 1,000
Couple and 2 children : 500
Total # of households : 5,500

Night city working households
Single (day: office worker & night: hostess): 25
Single (hostess bar) : 40
Single (male host bar) : 20
Total # of households : 85
Total # of people : 10580

Model Flow
1. People from households that work for a company go to their own company department (5 companies x 4 departments).
- A certain rate of people is infected by contact with an infected person in the company.
2. Each department goes to the tavern as a group (maximum group size is 8 or 4 people, create a new group if the maximum number is exceeded).
- A certain rate of people is infected by contact with an infected person within a group of pubs.
3. A certain rate of people from a group of pubs goes to a hostess bar together.
- Each man is served by a hostess (sitting style: face to face or diagonal).
4. A certain rate of people is infected by contact with an infected person in a hostess pub's service.
- Bar girls go to male host bars at a certain rate after work.
5. In a host bar, one host sits beside each cabaret girl and serves her.
- A certain rate of people is infected by contact with an infected person in the male host pub's hospitality.
6. Young people, hostess bar girls, and male hosts go dancing clubs at a certain rate.
- Constantly infected by contact with an infected person in a dance club.
7. Go home to each home.
- A certain rate of people is infected by contact with an infected person at home.

Courtesy of University of Tsukuba