Infection Simulation based on Proposed Human Behavior Models derived from SNS and Press Data #6

The number of new positive cases is higher than the projected number at this moment. If the state of emergency cannot be expected to be effective, it is highly possible that the spread of infection cannot be suppressed.

By an analysis of Twitter tweets, it was found that a greater number of tweets expressing feelings of scared led to behavioral inhibition. The number of tweets expressing feelings of scared increased after the 4th state of emergency, which may be related to some decrease in human flow in Tokyo.

Number of COVID-19 related posts

Emotional component values of COVID-19 related posts

During the 4th state of emergency, we have confirmed a decrease in human flow in Tokyo to some extent.
On the other hand, in areas where the state of emergency or the priority measures have been lifted, an increase in the human flow can be confirmed.

・Mobile spatial statistics were used to identify changes in the population flow in downtown areas within the region where the state of emergency was declared.
・During past state of emergency, we have seen a significant reduction in human flow in each of the areas where the state of emergency was declared. The effect (reduction in the number of people in the region) was strongest at the time of the 1st declaration, with no significant difference in effect between the 2nd and 3rd.
・After the 4th state of emergency was declared, a decrease in human flow in downtown areas in Tokyo was observed, although not as drastic as during previous declarations.
・On the other hand, in areas where the state of emergency or the priority measures have been lifted, an increase in the human flow has been confirmed.

■Kabukicho, Tokyo

■Shibuya Center Street, Tokyo

■Ikebukuro, Tokyo

■Harajuku, Tokyo

■Ueno Ameyoko, Tokyo

■South side of Shinagawa Station, Tokyo

■Tokyo Station, Tokyo

■Odaiba Tokyo Teleport, Tokyo

■Yokohama Station, Kanagawa

■Kawasaki Station, Kanagawa

■Hiyoshi Station, Kanagawa

■Kitashinchi, Osaka

■Kawaramachi, Kyoto

■Nakasu-Kawabata, Fukuoka

■Susukino, Hokkaido