Infection Simulation based on Proposed Human Behavior Models derived from SNS and Press Data #12

・The introduction of vaccine passport is highly effective, but early introduction (starting in November) is essential.
・If a vaccine passport is introduced at the beginning of the year, its effectiveness will be significantly reduced.
・If the vaccine passport introduction rate is low, 3rd vaccination is mandatory, but it can be given 6 months after the 2nd.
・In the case of no introduction of vaccine passport, 3rd vaccination 3 months after the 2nd vaccination is mandatory.
・If the vaccine passport introduction rate is high, the spread of infection may be controlled even with only the 2nd vaccination.
・The reality is that high rate of the vaccine passport introduction is unlikely and preparation for 3rd vaccination is essential.
・The 5th wave is similar to the situation when human flow was suppressed by the 1st state of emergency. It is assumed that this is a synergistic effect of "hot and humid conditions a few weeks ago" and "a decrease in the number of unvaccinated persons". In addition, the increase in the level of anxiety based on sentiment analysis from Twitter shows that people's degree of self-restraint has improved.

■Vaccine passport start date
　➡　Assuming a start date of November 1, 2021
　➡　Assuming a start date of January 1, 2022
　➡　Assuming that a vaccine passport is not introduced
■　Self-restraint rate among unvaccinated persons
　➡　80% self-restraint (80% of unvaccinated persons are restricted in their activities due to the implementation of a vaccine passport)
　➡　50% self-restraint (50% of unvaccinated persons are restricted in their activities due to the implementation of a vaccine passport)

As a general setting:
* Vaccine passport is valid from the date of 2nd vaccination
* Behaviors of those who received vaccination and/or do not follow the vaccine passport policy are same as before COVID-19

■　Simulation target and duration
　➡　Target: Tokyo, nationwide
　➡　Duration: until the end of March
■　Timing of lifting state of emergency
　➡　Until the end of September (it is assumed that "Priority measures to prevent the spread of infectious disease" will continue to be implemented for one month after the lifting)
■　Outbreak virus
　➡　Delta variant
■　Vaccine effect and vaccination rate
　➡　Slides 6, 7
■　Human flow
　➡　Slide 5
■　Other
　➡　The effects of temperature and humidity are not taken into account this time

1.2 vaccinations
　- Assuming that the effect on the prevention drops to 0.5 in 6 months
　- Assuming that the effect is 0.85 times against Delta variant than conventional variant

2.3rd vaccination 6 months after the 2nd vaccination

Vaccination
■　Final vaccination rate 70%
　➡　14 years and younger: 0%, ages 15-39: 70%, ages 40-64: 70%, 65 years and older: 85%
■　Final vaccination rate 80%
　➡　14 years and younger: 0%, ages 15-39: 80%, ages 40-64: 80%, 65 years and older: 85%
■　Final vaccination rate 90%
　➡　14 years and younger: 0%, ages 15-39: 90%, ages 40-64: 90%, 65 years and older: 90%

*Average of scenarios of vaccine passport starts in November_Final vaccination rate 70-90%

*Average of scenarios of vaccine passport starts in November_Final vaccination rate 70-90%

*Average of scenarios of vaccine passport starts in November_Final vaccination rate 70-90%

*Average of scenarios of vaccine passport starts in November_Final vaccination rate 70-90%

■Kabukicho, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Shibuya Center Street, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Ikebukuro, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Harajuku, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Ueno Ameyoko, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■South side of Shinagawa Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Tokyo Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Odaiba Tokyo Teleport, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Yokohama Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Kawasaki Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Hiyoshi Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Kitashinchi, Osaka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Kawaramachi, Kyoto (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Nakasu-Kawabata, Fukuoka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

■Susukino, Hokkaido (Number of people in the area by time axis)