Summary
■The effect of introducing vaccine passports is high, but early and simultaneous introduction is important.
■Implementing third vaccinations after eight months is too slow. Even if bringing that forward is not possible, a simultaneous start in the New Year will be essential.
■The situation during the next spread of infections will be different from previous occasions.
➡︎Infections will expand gradually while vaccine effects continue to decrease gradually.
➡︎October and November are the calm before the storm.
➡︎Both third vaccinations and vaccine passports will suppress the spread of infections while we wait for the emergence of medications, etc.
Scenario Settings
■Predictions in the cases where third vaccinations are implemented at four and eight months after the second vaccination
The settings are made so that third vaccinations are not implemented before November.
■Predictions in the cases where vaccine passports are implemented in October and the actions of non-vaccinated people are suppressed to 30% and 50%
It is assumed that suppression of action will be similar to at the time of the first declaration of a state of emergency.
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Kabukicho, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Shibuya Center Street, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Ikebukuro, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Harajuku, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Uneno Ameyoko, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
South side of Shinagawa Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Tokyo Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Odaiba Tokyo Teleport, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Yokohama Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Kawasaki Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Hiyoshi Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Kitashinchi, Osaka (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Kawaramachi, Kyoto (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Nakasu-Kawabata, Fukuoka (Number of people in the area by time axis)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
Susukino, Hokkaido (Number of people in the area by time axis)