Infection Simulation based on Proposed Human Behavior Models derived from SNS and Press Data #16

■Booster vaccination
　➡︎Period and subjects
　　✔️Elderly from Dec., Others from Feb.
　　✔️Elderly from Dec., Others from Mar.
　➡︎Final vaccination rate
　　✔️70%，80%，90%
■Vaccination passport
　➡︎Period
　　✔️Starting in November
　➡︎Self-restraint rate for non-vaccinated
　　✔️0%，30%，50%

■Final vaccination rate 70%
　➡︎14 years and under: 0%, ages 15-39: 70%, ages 40-64: 70%, ages 65 and over: 85%
■Final vaccination rate 80%
　➡︎14 years and under: 0%, ages 15-39: 80%, ages 40-64: 80%, ages 65 and over: 85%
■Final vaccination rate 90%
　➡︎14 years and under: 0%, ages 15-39: 90%, ages 40-64: 90%, ages 65 and over: 90%

■Simulation place and period
　➡︎Place: Tokyo
　➡︎Period: Until the end of March
■State of emergency
　➡︎No state of emergency declared as the number of infected people increases
■Virus in circulation
　➡︎Delta variant
■Human flow
　➡︎Approx. between the level prior to COVID-19 and that of last year (unlikely to go back to pre-COVID-19 level)

・If the introduction of vaccine passports is zero, infections increase rapidly even with a final vaccination rate of 90%.(A simulation is currently being implemented to estimate subsidence of infections with antibody cocktail + dosage)
・Infections subside if the rate of introduction of vaccine passports is 50% (50% of non-vaccinated people engage in self-restraint).
・There is no great difference if boosters start in December or January.
・If the rate of introduction of vaccine passports is actually about 30%, infections will increase from February of the new year, but we can surmise that they can be handled with a final vaccination rate of 80% and antibody cocktails + medication (the rough standard for antibody cocktail + dosage is currently being simulated).
・We should aim for a final vaccination rate of 90%.

Kabukicho, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Shibuya Center Street, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Ikebukuro, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Harajuku, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Uneno Ameyoko, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

South side of Shinagawa Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Tokyo Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Odaiba Tokyo Teleport, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Yokohama Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawasaki Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Hiyoshi Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kitashinchi, Osaka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawaramachi, Kyoto (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Nakasu-Kawabata, Fukuoka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Susukino, Hokkaido (Number of people in the area by time axis)