Infection Simulation based on Proposed Human Behavior Models derived from SNS and Press Data #24

■Prerequisites
・Booster vaccinations delayed for seven months (speed of vaccinations is the same as for second doses)
・The immunological effect of the third dose is 95%, gradually decreasing
・No consideration of therapeutic agents
・No settings such as restrictions on going out

■Omicron variant
・1.5 times more infectious (effective reproduction number under similar conditions)
・0.5 times vaccine effect

■Prerequisites
・Booster vaccinations delayed for seven months from second dose (speed of vaccinations is the same as for second doses)
・The immunological effect of the third dose is 95%, gradually decreasing
・No settings such as restrictions on going out
・Vaccine passport
　　(1) Case of non-implementation (no V/T)
　　(2) Weak effect (weak V/T)
　　(3) Strong effect (strong V/T)
　　　　　　*Weak effect: Between no policy and strong effect
　　　　　　*Strong effect: Level of the second to fourth declarations of a state of emergency

■Settings for Omicron
・Infectivity (reproduction number) 1.25 and 1.5 times that of Delta
・Vaccine effect 0.75, and 0.5 times that of Delta

If no V/T, 9,150 on January 31, 14,680 people on February 5 and 21,327 people on February 10
If weak V/T, 5,028 people on January 31, 8,200 on February 5 and 12,974 people on February 10
If strong V/T, 1,890 people on January 31, 2,830 on February 5 and 3,854 people on February 10

It is possible to suppress the number of newly infected people in one day around February 10
greatly by implementing a thorough vaccine passport policy.
*The case where effects equivalent to the second or third declaration of a state of emergency are produced
This is still under simulation, but without V/T, the number of newly infected people per day is estimated at about 200,000 people in late February.
Even if strong V/T is implemented, infections will spread toward March.
There is only the third vaccine to stop this.
The current third vaccination plan is far too slow.

Although the rate of severe illness is very likely to be low, as shown in the last three slides, if the number of infected people increases rapidly, the number of people who become severely ill also increases rapidly.
Oxygen inhalation resources for moderate cases are more of a bottleneck.

The issue of things like a declaration of a state of emergency, etc., in view of the number of people who become severely ill in the fifth wave is dangerous
　➡ The speed of infection with Omicron is fast
　➡ A decision on issue is required quickly

In any case, third vaccinations need to be accelerated.
From February, it will be necessary to accelerate the vaccination of young people with workplace vaccinations, etc.

Kabukicho, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Shibuya Center Street, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Ikebukuro, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Harajuku, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Uneno Ameyoko, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

South side of Shinagawa Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Tokyo Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Odaiba/Tokyo Teleport, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Yokohama Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawasaki Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Hiyoshi Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kitashinchi, Osaka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawaramachi, Kyoto (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Nakasu Kawabata, Fukuoka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Susukino Station, Hokkaido (Number of people in the area by time axis)

National Average

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By number of customers

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By time

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By timing of reservation

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By restaurant size

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By frequency of visits

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Hokkaido

Tohoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Miyagi Prefecture

Kanto

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Hokuriku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Tokai

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Kinki

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Chugoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Shikoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Kyushu/Okinawa

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Aggregation Definition

• Comparison with the same week (Monday-Sunday) of 2019
• The subject restaurants are 10,000 where Toreta was introduced before January 2019
• Because there was a typhoon on the weekend of Week 41 (second week of October) in 2019 in the Kanto region, the results may be a little high.