Infection Simulation based on Proposed Human Behavior Models derived from SNS and Press Data #27

Vaccinations
Booster vaccinations delayed by 7 months
Booster vaccination is possible 6 months after the second vaccination
The infection prevention effect of the third vaccination is 95% that for previous variants and gradually decreases
Speed of 3rd vaccination Same as 2nd vaccination 
No consideration of therapeutic agents
Omicron variant
Set to 1.7 times more infectious (effective reproduction number under similar conditions)
Vaccine effect set to 0.5 times that of Delta
Simulation implementation scenario
Quasi state of emergency　　 
Number of newly infected people in Tokyo Start of implementation on January 21, 2022
Number of newly infected people nationwide Adapted to each prefecture based on data as of January 28, 2022

■If the peak is reached in places such as South Africa and Europe due to the acquisition of herd immunity, the actual number of infected people in Japan will be far more than the number reported.
■Bringing infections under control through booster vaccination effects is also possible.
■It is assumed that there are five to ten times more infected people than those detected.
■If a herd immunity effect is reached at 5 to 6 million people, it is possible that the peak will be reached in mid to late February.
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■It is understood from the mobile statistics that the effects of the quasi state of emergency are being seen prominently.

Kabukicho, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Shibuya Center Street, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Ikebukuro, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Harajuku, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Uneno Ameyoko, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

South side of Shinagawa Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Tokyo Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Odaiba/Tokyo Teleport, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Yokohama Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawasaki Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Hiyoshi Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kitashinchi, Osaka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawaramachi, Kyoto (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Nakasu Kawabata, Fukuoka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Susukino Station, Hokkaido (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Aggregation Definition

• Comparison with the same week (Monday-Sunday) of 2019
• The subject restaurants are 10,000 where Toreta was introduced before January 2019
• Because there was a typhoon on the weekend of Week 41 (second week of October) in 2019 in the Kanto region, the results may be a little high.

National Average

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By number of customers

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By time

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By timing of reservation

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By restaurant size

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By frequency of visits

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Hokkaido

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Tohoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Kanto

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Hokuriku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Tokai

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Kinki

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Chugoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Shikoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Kyushu/Okinawa

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo