Infection Simulation based on Proposed Human Behavior Models derived from SNS and Press Data #29

Is the slowing trend of the sixth wave due to reaching the peak of infections through herd immunity in the sense that almost everyone is infected?
⇒ Have we reached that state of infections?
Or, have we reached the peak of infections due to changes in people’s movement, the same as up to the fifth wave?
⇒This is more likely.
⇒Therefore, consideration of the possibility of a seventh wave with infections continuing at a high level is required

Prerequisites
Booster vaccinations delayed by 6 months
Booster vaccination is possible 6 months after the second vaccination
The infection prevention effect of the third vaccination is 95% that for previous variants and gradually decreases
Therapeutic agents have not been considered

Omicron variant 1.7 times more infectious (effective reproduction number under similar conditions) Assumption that the vaccine effect is 0.5 times that of Delta → Set so that the infection prevention effect falls to about 0.3 with the third vaccination.

Implementation scenario From January 25 to February 28 → Suppression of flows of people
at the level of a declaration of a state of emergency
From March 1 on → Assumption of the declaration of a state of emergency, quasi state of
emergency level and somewhere in between

This is because a reduction in movement by people can be seen from the Toreta mobile spatial statistics.

Kabukicho, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Shibuya Center Street, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Ikebukuro, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Harajuku, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Harajuku, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

South side of Shinagawa Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Tokyo Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Odaiba/Tokyo Teleport, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Yokohama Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawasaki Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Hiyoshi Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kitashinchi, Osaka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawaramachi, Kyoto (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Nakasu Kawabata, Fukuoka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Susukino Station, Hokkaido (Number of people in the area by time axis)

National Average

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By number of customers

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By time

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By timing of reservation

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By restaurant size

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By frequency of visits

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Hokkaido

Tohoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Miyagi Prefecture

Kanto

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Hokuriku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Ishikawa Prefecture

Tokai

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Aichi Prefecture

Kinki

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Osaka Prefecture

Chugoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Hiroshima Prefecture

Shikoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Ehime Prefecture

Kyushu/Okinawa

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Fukuoka Prefecture

Aggregation Definition

• Comparison with the same week (Monday-Sunday) of 2019
• The subject restaurants are 10,000 where Toreta was introduced before January 2019