Infection Simulation based on Proposed Human Behavior Models derived from SNS and Press Data #31

■Assumptions: Booster shot is delayed by six months
Booster shot is available six months after the second vaccination
The infection-prevention effect of the third vaccination against the original variant is 95%, and decreases gradually Therapeutic drugs are not taken into consideration

■Omicron variant
Infectability (the effective reproduction number under a similar situation) is 1.7 times higher​ Vaccination effect of the first and second vaccination is assumed to be 50% compared to the Delta variant
Due to the third vaccination, the infection-prevention effect is assumed to decrease to 0.9 and 0.5 against the Delta variant and the Omicron variant, respectively

■Implementation scenario​
From January 25 to March 6  Control of flows of people to a level equivalent to that under the declaration of a state of emergency
March 7 onward  It is assumed to be that of the declaration of a state of emergency, quasi-state of emergency, and in between the two

Vaccination rate among young adult segment is still low, but it is increasing gradually.

Kabukicho, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Shibuya Center Street, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Ikebukuro, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Harajuku, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Ueno Ameyoko, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

South Side of Shinagawa Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Tokyo Station, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Odaiba/Tokyo Teleport, Tokyo (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Yokohama Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawasaki Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Hiyoshi Station, Kanagawa (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kitashinchi, Osaka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Kawaramachi, Kyoto (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Nakasu Kawabata, Fukuoka (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Susukino Station, Hokkaido (Number of people in the area by time axis)

Aggregate definition
•Comparison with the same week (Monday–Sunday) of 2019
•The subject restaurants are 10,000 where Toreta was introduced before January 2019
•Because there was a typhoon on the weekend of Week 41 (second week of October) in 2019 in the Kanto region, the results may be a little high

National Average

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By number of customers

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By time

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By timing of reservation

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By restaurant size

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

By frequency of visits

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Hokkaido

Tohoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Miyagi Prefecture

Kanto

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Tokyo

Hokuriku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Ishikawa Prefecture

Tokai

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Aichi Prefecture

Kinki

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Osaka Prefecture

Chugoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Hiroshima Prefecture

Shikoku

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Ehime Prefecture

Kyushu/Okinawa

*Periods of the declaration of a state of emergency or pre-emergency measures in Fukuoka Prefecture