Optimizing Medical and Laboratory Resources Simulation #23

■ Using the data up to June 27, the simulation results are shown for the period from June 28 to the end of September.
　■ Formulation using Alpha variant (UK variant: 20% more infectious than conventional variants: effective reproduction 1.4-1.5) as base case
　■ The lifting of the 3rd emergency declaration for the 4th wave was set for June 20, and assuming a method of easing the self-restraint and returning life to normal.
　■ The result is reflected in the effective reproduction number.
■ During the Olympic and Paralympic Games, economic activity increases, indicating a scenario in which infectiousness increases by 10%.
■ Delta variant is 20% more infectious than Alpha variant (1.5 times more infectious than conventional variants. The severity rate is the same).
■ Since false positives are assumed to be 0.5%, an average of several dozen false positives occur.

Regarding vaccination rates,
■As of June 25, the initial status was 1.12 million people vaccinated with the 1st dose and 1.02 million people with the 2nd dose completed.
■Assumed 100,000 or 150,000 doses per day, including the 2nd vaccination.
■In Tokyo, the vaccination of 3.6 million elderly people is targeted to be completed from mid-July to around the end of July, but in this simulation, all age groups were vaccinated uniformly.
■As of 7/23, Olympic Games begin, 25% of the total population will have completed receiving 2 doses of vaccine
■By the end of September, about 60% of the total population (in terms of the number of people vaccinated, on a daily basis of 0.5%) will have been vaccinated.
■Assuming Pfizer vaccine, the 2nd dose is given 3 weeks after the 1st dose, and the effect is achieved 2 weeks after vaccination.

■We have continued to compare the simulation results with the reported number of positive cases and other data to investigate the extent to which the scenario has actually reduced the infection rate.
■Comparing the results of the simulation conducted on May 8 with the actual reported values, the values are higher than the 20% reduction forecast after June 20.

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■Using the scenario of maintaining a state of self-restraint after the declaration of a state of emergency with only Alpha variant as the base case, we show that after the declaration of a state of emergency is lifted, we consider an increase in the human traffic from 10% to 50% since the time of the declaration: an increase in the number of Delta variant (ratio 70%, effective reproduction number Rt1.8).

Tokyo base-case Alpha variant Rt1.4-1.5/human traffic increase/Delta variant increase Rt1.8 vaccine 100,000 doses/day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■Using the scenario of maintaining a state of self-restraint after the declaration of a state of emergency with only Alpha variant as the base case, we show that after the declaration of a state of emergency is lifted, we consider an increase in the human traffic from 10% to 50% since the time of the declaration: an increase in the number of Delta variant (ratio 70%, effective reproduction number Rt1.8).

Tokyo base-case Alpha variant Rt1.4-1.5/human traffic increase/Delta variant increase Rt1.8 vaccine 100,000 doses/day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■Indicates 100,000-300,000 people related to the Olympic and Paralympic and spectators, considering a 10% increase in the human traffic or a Delta variant increase (effective reproduction number Rt1.8).

Tokyo base-case Alpha variant Rt1.4-1.5/human traffic increase/Delta variant increase Rt1.8 vaccine 100,000 doses/day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■Using the scenario of maintaining a state of self-restraint after the declaration of a state of emergency with only Alpha variant as the base case, we show that after the declaration of a state of emergency is lifted, we consider an increase in the human traffic from 10% to 50% since the time of the declaration: an increase in the number of Delta variant (ratio 70%, effective reproduction number Rt1.8).

Tokyo base-case Alpha variant Rt1.4-1.5/human traffic increase/Delta variant increase Rt1.8 vaccine 150,000 doses/day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■If the assumption is higher than the base case, the occupancy status of the beds for the moderately and severely ill will deteriorate rapidly.
■The peak is suppressed compared to 100,000 doses per day.

Tokyo base-case Alpha variant Rt1.4-1.5/human traffic increase/Delta variant increase Rt1.8 vaccine 150,000 doses/day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■Indicates people related to the Olympic and Paralympic and spectators, considering a 10% increase in the human traffic or Delta variant increase (effective reproduction number Rt1.8).
■The impact of the influx of 100,000/200,000/300,000 officials from Japan and 77,000 from overseas into Tokyo is not significant.
■It peaks in late August and early September, and almost comes to an end by the end of September.

Tokyo base-case Alpha variant Rt1.4-1.5/human traffic increase/Delta variant increase Rt1.8 vaccine 150,000 doses/day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc