Effect of declining vaccine efficacy

Date: 2021.08.03
Researcher: Yukio Ohsawa
Organization: The University of Tokyo (School of Engineering)

Regarding the diminishing of vaccine effect over time

Fig. 1: Plasmablast and antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 immunization. | Nature (About half in 10 weeks)

Reflected in u: 1st vaccination started to take effect 2 weeks later at 30%, 2nd vaccination started to take effect 1 week later at 94%, After that the effect diminishes by 1.6% daily (slightly overestimated)

In the "somehow maintain vaccination" scenario, Tokyo alone has an increase to 130,000 people / day.

Reference: Enlarged view of the "Somehow maintain vaccination" scenario

Maintain vaccination and deal with prolonged situation" scenario: Effective only in areas that reach their peak in the second half. The range does not change for the increases that have already began

Maintain vaccination at the highest level" scenario: Strongly effective in areas that reach their peak in the second half. Even in the increases that have already began

Scenario that "effectiveness is 60% from the 1st shot (30% until just before), and the vaccination amount is restored" ⇒ The effect is suppressing about 60-80% of the original in each prefecture

Scenario that "double the vaccination amount with the same time allocation (ratio)" ⇒ The effect is suppressing about 40-50% in each prefecture

Scenario that "effectiveness is 60% from the 1st shot (30% until just before), and double the vaccination amount with the same time allocation (ratio) ⇒ Suppressing the number of infected people to 10% or less

Topic 2: The main mission of this G: Multi-layered Network Model

●Why a network model is required (only the third is a review of the previous)
　○Hc (equality of distribution) maximization is extremely effective as a first aid until pv (vaccination speed) is accelerated
　○ Maximizing mean R0 in vaccinated areas is effective at low pv speeds but counterproductive at Δ variant spread
　○Errors accumulate when regions are combined and simulated (then tested theoretically with mathematical model experts)
●Basic Concept and Model Overview of MultiLayer-MultiAgent Model
　○Local nature of the network, enabling it to reflect the context of life in micro-macro interactions
　○Report of the current calculation parameters and examples of calculation results
　○Future Schedule 　○Appendix
　　■Order distribution of each layer
　　■Generation logic of each layer of MLN (separate document)