Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology
Prediction system under development
Characteristics: Directly predict the numbers of newly infected people and seriously ill patients per day up to one month later considering flows of people and seasonality based on the LSTM model (one-week average value)
The data volume in appearance was increased by using standardized data instead of that of prefectures.
Age dependency is not considered (no data).
Prediction result by deep learning (LSTM): Comparison with the previous predicted value
(Previous learning period: Up to 2021/08/10, This time: Up to 2021/08/22)
Predicted number of newly infected people in Tokyo
The vaccine made by Pfizer in New York City and BioNTech in Mainz, Germany, was 92% effective at keeping people from developing a high viral load — a high concentration of the virus in their test samples — 14 days after the second dose. But the vaccine’s effectiveness fell to 90%, 85% and 78% after 30, 60 and 90 days, respectively.
*Alpha variant: 3-4% on 15 Dec.
Dominant on 6 Feb.
Transition in the number of newly infected people in Tel Aviv, Israel
Estimated proportion of the people for whom vaccination is effective (Israel as a whole)
Approximated from the data of Science (see P2). The effect of only one vaccination is not considered.
W2, W3... are defined for convenience
Relationship between the decline rate of flows of people and
effective reproduction number in the expansion period
There is no big gap in the correlation between the flow of people and the effective reproductivity between the W2 period (original variant, without vaccination) and the W5 period (delta variant, with vaccination).
The effect of vaccination may be offset by the infectability of the delta variant
Transition in the number of newly hospitalized people in Tel Aviv, Israel
The number of hospitalized people also increased after the appearance of the delta variant (reported for the first time in Israel on April 8, 2021).
The number of fatalities also increases
Estimated proportion of the people for whom vaccination is effective (Tokyo)
Relationship between the population decline rate and the effective reproduction number in Tokyo and Osaka
Existing variant (green): About -30%
Alpha variant: Little less than -40%
Delta variant (including the effect of vaccination): Little more than -40%
Existing variant (green): About -25%
Alpha variant: -30%
Delta variant (including the effect of vaccination): -30%
Judging from the result of Tel Aviv, the estimated proportion of the people for whom vaccination is effective is 0.4-0.5, and this is about the same for both the delta and existing variants.
Mid-September if it is assumed to be applicable to Japan