(1) Declaration of the 4th State of Emergency in Response to the Fifth Wave and Vaccine Effect, Simulation Conditions and Prediction
■Using the data up to August 12, the simulation results are shown for the period from August 13 to the end of November
■Simulation using Alpha variant (UK variant: 20% more infectious than conventional variants: effective reproduction 1.4-1.5) has been replaced by Delta variant (Indian variant) (90% are Delta variant) as the base case
■The lifting of the 4th emergency declaration for the 5th wave was set for August 31, and assuming a method of easing the self-restraint and returning life to normal. Reflected in the effective reproduction number.
■The Delta variant is equivalent to a 50% increase in the Alpha variant (with the same serious illness rate and other factors).
■Since false positives are assumed to be 0.5%, an average of several dozen false positives occur.
■As for the human flow, the decrease due to the state of emergency is assumed to be from 0% to 30%, and after the state of emergency is lifted on September 1, it is assumed to be 10% higher than before the lifting.
■If the hospital beds for mild to moderate illness are not sufficient, the patients will be placed on a waiting list for hospital admission. The majority of patients recover at home or in residential care.
■If the hospital beds for the seriously ill are not sufficient, there is a very high probability of death.
(1) Declaration of the 4th State of Emergency Effect, Simulation Conditions and Prediction
Regarding vaccination rates,
■As of August 12, the initial status was 1.82 million people vaccinated with the 1st dose and 4.43 million people with the 2nd dose completed.
■Assumed 150,000 doses per day, including the 2nd vaccination.
■In Tokyo, 85% was achieved at the end of July for 3.6 million elderly people, but in Tokyo's simulation, after 85% of the elderly, all remaining households are vaccinated according to population distribution. The two-dose vaccination rate should be 60% for those in their teens and 20s, and 70% for those in their 30s and older.
■By the end of September, about 50% of the total population (in terms of the number of people vaccinated, on a daily basis of 0.5%) will have been vaccinated.
■For October and beyond, the degree of vaccination will be reduced by half on the assumption that the supply will decrease.
■Assuming Pfizer vaccine, the 2nd dose is given 3 weeks after the 1st dose, and the effect is achieved 1 week after vaccination.
■As an effect of vaccination, 30% of people become free of infection after the 1st dose, or serious infections are reduced by 70%. 85% of people become free of infection after the 2nd dose (previously assumed to be 95%), or serious infections are reduced by 90%. However, the effect does not depend on the type of virus.
(1) Effect of declaration of a state of emergency on the 4th wave: 2) Effect of emergency measures (Tokyo)
■We have continued to compare the simulation results with the reported number of positive cases and other data to investigate the extent to which the scenario has actually reduced the infection rate.
(2) Vaccination effects Projection (Tokyo): 1) 150,000 doses of vaccine
■Predicted rates of decrease in human flow during a state of emergency are based on scenarios ranging from no decrease to a 30% decline, and the effectiveness of the vaccine and the impact of the Delta variant are examined. Assumed a 10% increase in the human flow from September.
■Since the number of tests is assumed to be 20,000 per day, the number of positive cases has reached a ceiling.
■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 0.5%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status
(2) Vaccination effects Projection (Tokyo): 1) 150,000 doses of vaccine
■Predicted rates of decrease in human flow during a state of emergency are based on scenarios ranging from no decrease to a 30% decline, and the effectiveness of the vaccine and the impact of the Delta variant are examined. Assumed a 10% increase in the human flow from September.
■Since the number of tests is assumed to be 20,000 per day, the number of positive cases has reached a ceiling.
■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 0.5%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status
(2) Vaccination effects Projection (Osaka): 1) 90,000 doses of vaccine
■Predicted rates of decrease in human flow during a state of emergency are based on scenarios ranging from no decrease to a 30% decline, and the effectiveness of the vaccine and the impact of the Delta variant are examined. Assumed a 10% increase in the human flow from September.
■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 0.5%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status
(2) Vaccination effects Projection (Osaka): 1) 90,000 doses of vaccine
■Predicted rates of decrease in human flow during a state of emergency are based on scenarios ranging from no decrease to a 30% decline, and the effectiveness of the vaccine and the impact of the Delta variant are examined. Assumed a 10% increase in the human flow from September.
■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 0.5%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status
