Faculty of Science and Technology, Keio University
Short-Term Outlook (through mid-September)
The rise is expected to continue until late August at the earliest, with the number of newly infected people reaching 35,000 per day
・The number of newly infected people may be higher than simulated, depending on the number of travelers during Obon holidays.
※6 prefectures: Where a state of emergency was declared as of 8/10, Okinawa, Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa and Osaka
Projected changes in the number of newly infected people by the timing of declaring a state of emergency nationwide
・The number of newly infected people peaks around the beginning of September, but a nationwide state of emergency declaration could reduce the number of infected people by up to 10,000 people
・Assuming that the human flow continues at the level of the latest priority measures
Projected changes in the number of newly infected people due to telework
・Assuming that a nationwide state of emergency is declared on 8/17 and stronger telework measures are implemented
・Restrictions on restaurants are remained at current levels.
・Telework implementation rate: Percentage of workers who telework at least 3 times a week
※The number of newly infected people nationwide will rise to about 60,000, but is expected to decrease due to the effect of telework.
Forecasts for Tokyo
Projected changes due to the teleworking implementation
・Declaring a state of emergency nationwide will not significantly change the peak, but it will speed up the convergence
・By promoting telework, the number of newly infected people can be reduced by about 2,000.
Forecasts for Osaka
Projected changes in the number of newly infected people after teleworking
・As in Tokyo, the infection in Osaka can be brought under control quickly by issuing a nationwide state of emergency
・The degree of spread of infection is slightly higher in Osaka than in Tokyo The current simulation assumes that the degree of human activity is the same as in Tokyo, and although readjustment is necessary, the trend of infection is not significantly different from the current simulation.
SNS (Twitter) Analysis
Number of COVID-19 related posts
Emotional component values of COVID-19 related posts
SNS sentiment analysis (Data during 2021/4/1~7/31)
Mobile Spatial Statistics (Population Change)
・Until mid-September, policies of stronger behavioral restrictions are effective (in addition to the current policy, remote work rate, reduction in the number of flights in the transportation system, etc.), summer vacation, uniform closure of large stores, uniform absence of spectators at sports games, etc. This will be the last major restraint policy.
・Some restraint can be expected due to the increased anxiety caused by the rapid increase in the number of infected people. Regarding this expectation, it is obvious that the holding of the Olympics and Paralympics has had a negative effect.
・The policy from August to the middle of September is the most important one, as the vaccine will be effective in September and October.
・Considering that the final vaccination rate is likely to be around 70% and that new variants will continue to appear, it is necessary to start planning a continuous vaccine strategy from now, including the 3rd and 4th doses.
References:Changes in human flow in different areas