Optimizing Medical and Laboratory Resources Simulation #28

■Using the data up to September 20, the simulation results are shown for the period from September 21 to the end of February 2022
　■Simulation that Alpha variant (UK type: 20% more infectious than conventional variant: effective reproduction 1.4-1.5) is replaced by Delta variant (Indian variant) (90% Delta variant) as the base case
　■The lifting of the 4th emergency declaration for the 5th wave was set for October 1, and assuming a method of easing the self-restraint and returning life to normal after November 1. And reflected in the effective reproduction number.
■The Delta variant is equivalent to a 50% increase in infectivity of the Alpha variant (with the same rate of serious illness, etc.).
■Since false positives are assumed to be 0.5%, an average of several dozen false positives occur.

■Regarding human traffic, the decrease due to the state of emergency was assumed to be from 0% to 50% (compared to the situation before the 1st state of emergency), and for the period after 9/13 following the lifting of the state of emergency, a 20% increase from the situation before the lifting of the declaration was assumed.

■When there is a shortage of beds for cases of mild and moderate illness, patients are placed on a waiting list for admission to a hospital. The majority of people on the waiting lists will recover at home or in residential care.
■However, if there is a shortage of beds for the seriously ill, there is a very high probability of death.

Regarding vaccination rates,
■As of September 20, the initial status was 1.69 million people vaccinated with the 1st dose and 7.58 million people with the 2nd dose completed.
■Assumed 150,000 doses per day, including the 2nd vaccination.
■In Tokyo, a level of 85% was achieved at the end of July for 3.6 million elderly people, but in Tokyo's simulation, after 85% of the elderly, all remaining households are vaccinated according to population distribution. The 2-dose vaccination rate should be 60% for those in their 10s and 20s, and 70% for those in their 30s and older.
■By the end of September, about 60% of the total population (in terms of the number of people vaccinated, on a daily basis of 0.5%) will have been vaccinated.
■For October and beyond, the level of vaccination will be reduced by half, based on the assumption of reduced supply and those who do not wish to be vaccinated.
■Assuming Pfizer vaccine, the 2nd dose is given 3 weeks after the 1st dose, and the effect is achieved 1 week after vaccination.
■As an effect of vaccination, 30% of the vaccinated become free of infection after the 1st dose, or serious illness is reduced by 70%. After 2nd vaccination, 85% of the vaccinated become free of infection (previously assumed to be 95%) and serious illness is reduced by 90%. However, the effect does not depend on the type of virus.

■Predicted rates of decline in human traffic during the state of emergency declaration are based on scenarios ranging from no decline to a 40% decline, and the effects of vaccination and the Delta variant are examined. A 20% increase in human traffic is assumed after the lifting of the state of emergency. Overall aged 10s 75%, aged 20s - 60s 80%
■In both cases, the number increases after January as vaccine effectiveness declines.

Tokyo, Delta variant 90%, 150,000 doses / day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■Predicted rates of decline in human traffic during the state of emergency declaration are based on scenarios ranging from no decline to a 40% decline, and the effects of vaccination and the Delta variant are examined. A 20% increase in human traffic is assumed after the lifting of the state of emergency. Overall aged 10s 75%, aged 20s - 60s 80%
■In both cases, the number increases after January as vaccine effectiveness declines.

Tokyo, Delta variant 90%, 150,000 doses / day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■Predicted rates of decline in human traffic during the state of emergency declaration are based on scenarios ranging from no decline to a 40% decline, and the effects of vaccination and the Delta variant are examined. A 20% increase in human traffic is assumed after the lifting of the state of emergency. Overall aged 10s 80%, aged 20s - 60s 85%
■In both cases, once suppressed although vaccine effectiveness declines.

Tokyo, Delta variant 90%, 150,000 doses / day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc

■Predicted rates of decline in human traffic during the state of emergency declaration are based on scenarios ranging from no decline to a 40% decline, and the effects of vaccination and the Delta variant are examined. A 20% increase in human traffic is assumed after the lifting of the state of emergency. Overall aged 10s 75%, aged 20s - 60s 80%
■In both cases, once suppressed although vaccine effectiveness declines

Tokyo, Delta variant 90%, 150,000 doses / day

■Assuming 3 days are required to receive the test results
■False positives averaged 1%, false negatives averaged 20%
■Vaccination does not take into account changes in infection status

Courtesy of Mitsubishi Research Institute
Cooperation: Shibaura Institute of Technology, University of Electro-Communicationsc