Basic Scenario Settings
■Analysis in Tokyo
■Gradual recovery to "pre-pandemic socio-economic activity level" over 6 months from the end of September
■Image of this configuration
■October-November: Shorter hours requested by 21:00, serving alcoholic beverages OK, some relaxation of event restrictions
■December - January next year: Shorter hours requested by 23:00, serving alcoholic beverages OK, event restrictions removed
■After February next year: All regulations lifted and people will gradually stop wearing masks
■Maximum number of new infections per day that people can tolerate: 10,000 (assuming a medical system 1.5 times the current one)
■Basic reproduction number: 3, 4, 5, 6
■The value that the Fujii-Nakata team thinks is most plausible at this point is 4 (evidence: Analysis of the first half of "(August 17) Medium- and long-term outlook for Covid-19 Infection and the Economy"
■Vaccination applicants: About 80% of the total population <92% elderly, 80% aged 13-64, 0% aged 12 and under>
■Assumptions of effects of vaccination on infection prevention
■Basic Scenario: 1st dose 45%, 2nd dose 75%
■Seasonality: Using the Sine function, the maximum value of the contact rate parameter in winter is set to 1.2 times the minimum value in summer
Alternative Scenario Assumptions
■Special Scenario
■Simulation of how much the outlook would deteriorate if the current "vaccination rate" were the same as when the declaration was lifted on June 22
■Simulation to relativize the current outlook
■Maximum number of new infections per day that people can tolerate
■6,000 (assuming maintaining the current medical system)
■10,000 (assuming a medical system 1.5 times the current one)
■18,000 (assuming a medical system 2 times the current one)
Points to keep in mind
■The number of cumulative deaths considers only "deaths due to COVID-19 infection"
■It does not take into consideration how strengthening the medical system for COVID-19 will lead to other conventional medical limitations and how much the limitations will increase the number of deaths from other causes
■It does not take into consideration the possibility that the number of suicides will increase due to the prolonged stagnation of social and economic activities due to the repeated declarations of state of emergency
■Batista, Fujii, and Nakata (2021) "COVID-19 and Suicides in Japan" contains the estimation of the additional suicide so far due to the COVID-19 pandemic
■The estimation of the number of seriously ill patients and deaths gives an incomplete consideration to the following factors
■If the proportion of newly infected people with breakthrough infections increases significantly, it would result in a decrease in the serious illness rate and mortality rate of all newly infected patients. This impact is only incompletely considered in this analysis
■The future deaths and seriously ill patients in this analysis may be too pessimistic
Special Scenario: if the current vaccination rate were at the June 22 level
Note: Red Blue (Special Scenario, Basic Scenario)
基Basic reproduction number
Note: Blue·Black·Red·Purple (Basic reproduction numbers 3, 4, [Basic Scenario] 5, 6)
Maximum number of new infections per day that people can tolerate
Note: Blue Black Red (18,000,10,000 [Basic Scenario], 6,000). Assuming medical system 2 times the current one, 1.5 times the current one, maintaining the status quo
