モModel A: Simulation of o Using Lattice of SEIR Circuits (Infectivity R0 (o) = 1.5 R0 (δ))
* Actual data were used only until September 5, after which the lifting of the declaration (October 2021) and the appearance of O variant (from December 2021 onward) was reflected qualitatively.
Booster vaccinations implemented seven months after second vaccination (consequently, the main factors in Okinawa were external factors such as interaction with foreign countries; is contact more active in Tokyo than Osaka?)
Model B: Case of Using a Multilayer Network
* Under both A and B, the number exceeds 10,000 people around February 2, with a peak exceeding 100,000 people (nonlinearity makes large numbers meaningless, but their boundaries are unclear)
Model (B) of MultiLayer-MultiAgent for SEIR: Settings
・Data: Artificial synthesis data from Professor Murata of Kansai University
・Infection transmission model:
✔️Adopted the SEIRS model after considering multi-agent based vaccine effectiveness.
✔️Considered the transition of status I from mild to serious illness, and then from serious illness to death
✔️Calculated when each layer is thinned in half
・Vaccination: Vaccination reduces the transition probability of S/V1/V2/V3 nodes to E by -X%. Vaccine effectiveness declines gradually
From July 9, 2021 materials: Third party question “What would happen in two prefectures?”
Large or small compared with the case where the amount of travel is 13% compared to 2019 in the annual cumulative number of infected persons
From July 9, 2021 materials: Third-party question “What would happen in two prefectures?” If R0 was the same as in FY 2020 (greater than 2021)
Large or small compared with the case where the amount of travel is 13% compared to 2019 in the annual cumulative number of infected persons
