Analysis
■Review of past economic activities in Tokyo under a state of emergency declaration
■Monthly real GDP
■Food service and accommodation sector
■Considering the impact on the economy when a state of emergency is declared in Tokyo during the sixth wave, referring to the decline in GDP during the second, third, and fourth waves in 2021
■Optimistic Scenario
■Basic Scenario
■Pessimistic Scenario
Important Points
■During the first state of emergency declaration in 2020, Tokyo's GDP decreased significantly.
■Compared to January 2020 (8.8 trillion yen/month), April 2020 was approximately “0.5 trillion” yen/month (about “6”%) lower.
■Even in 2021, Tokyo's GDP stagnated under state of emergency declarations.
■Compared to January 2020 (8.8 trillion yen/month), the level was at most 0.5 trillion yen/month (about 6%) lower (“May 2021”).
■The degree of decline in activity is greater in industries that are likely to be affected by a state of emergency declaration (e.g., food and beverage, accommodation).
■Compared to January 2020 before the pandemic (0.23 trillion yen/month), the level was at most -0.5 trillion yen/month (about 43%) (“May 2021”).
■In Tokyo, these sectors account for 2.5% of the total GDP before the pandemic.
■Note that we are only quantifying the direct economic cost of declaring a state of emergency during the sixth wave.
■Indirect economic costs which are not taken into account: Impact caused by expectations of policy responses to seventh and eighth waves, etc.
■Negative impact on current consumption and investment due to reduced expectations of economic recovery, and negative impact on consumption and investment due to increased uncertainty
Real GDP in Tokyo (Monthly: from January 2020)
・GDP was on a recovery trend in the second half of 2020.
・However, recovery stalled at the beginning of 2021 due to the subsequent resurgence of infections and the declaration of a state of emergency.
・Compared to the pre-pandemic period (January 2020), GDP in May 2020 was 0.5 trillion yen lower
Activity index of tertiary industry
・In the restaurant and accommodation industry, the pandemic caused a major drop in economic activity
・Note that in Tokyo, these sectors accounted for 2.5% of total GDP before the pandemic, and their contribution to overall stagnation is not so high.
Trend in unemployment rate
・The thin black line represents the average unemployment rate forecast by private think tanks and other organizations just before the pandemic.
Outlook for 2022
・Baseline Case: Allowing the spread of infection and restoring socioeconomic activities
・Respond to Policy C, “Temporary Change in COVID-19 Care System,” which was introduced in “Guidelines for COVID-19 Care during the sixth Wave (January 15)”
・https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/files/Nakata_PolicyOptions_20220115.pdf
・https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/503643?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=auto
・Basic Scenario
・GDP in February to April 2022 will be at the level of August-October 2021.
・Assumed that a declaration is issued at the end of January and lifted at the end of March.
・Optimistic Scenario
・GDP in February to April 2022 will be at the level of September-October 2021
・Assumed that the duration of a declaration would be shorter than the Basic Scenario (declaration issued at the end of January and lifted at the end of February), or that the duration would be the same, but the impact on the economy would be more limited.
・Pessimistic Scenario
・GDP in February to April 2022 will be at the level of May 2021 and August-October 2021
・Assumed that the duration of a declaration would be longer than the Basic Scenario (declaration issued at the end of January and lifted in mid-April), or that the duration would be the same, but the impact on the economy would be greater.
