Model (B) Multilayer Concept
Approximated the infection-prevention effect on the omicron variant by population level
Vaccination effectiveness + Number of infected people with the omicron variant
Prevention effect at the time of peaking-out
Okinawa: 37-43%
Hiroshima: 38-42%
Infection-prevention effect in Tokyo as of February 6 is 41-53%
Contact risk is high due to its large population (population density)
↓
Effective infection-prevention effect may be higher than other cities.
Number of new positive cases of Tokyo: Prediction as of February 1
If behaviors are controlled to the same extent as last year by the declaration of a state of emergency (blue) and if the current behaviors are kept (reddish brown), for two weeks from February 1 to February 14, it is assumed that the number of asymptomatic infected people will be 4 times larger than the number of new positive cases and the reinfection-prevention effect will be 50% and then decrease linearly.
Tokyo: Prediction as of February 7
Use the actual data on flows of people Vaccination will be further facilitated after mid-February (Effect will be after March)
Tokyo: Prediction as of February 7
*The definition of the number of seriously ill patients is that of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government (https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/monitoring)
