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■Analysis in Tokyo
■Recovery of “human flow and socioeconomic activities to pre-pandemic levels” taking 6 months from the second week of March 2022 (the end of Priority Preventative Measures)
■It is assumed that the decline will continue. Separated into cases by basic reproduction number
■Case A: Basic reproduction number 2.5
■Case B: Basic reproduction number 2.0
■Case C: Basic reproduction number 1.5
■Efficacy of 2 vaccinations in preventing infection by the Omicron variant: 50% of the Delta variant
■Administration of 3rd vaccination
■February: 500,000 units/week, March: 700,000 units/week, then pace gradually decreases
■Final 3rd vaccination rate = 60% of total population, 90% and 70% of people (the elderly and others) who are vaccinated with the 2nd dose
■See details on the next page
■Effectiveness of the third dose for preventing infection: 85%
■Seasonality: Using the Sine function, the maximum value of the contact rate parameter in winter is set to 1.2 times the minimum value in summer
■Mortality rate, serious illness rate (old Tokyo, new Tokyo, and national standards), and hospitalization rate during the sixth wave (20% relative to the fifth wave)
■Refer to “Rates of Serious Illness and Mortality during the Sixth Wave.” Composition effects and decline in effectiveness of vaccination are considered.
■With respect to the new Tokyo standard, 3 cases are considered: 15%, 20%, and 25%
Important Points
■Even if infections remain unchanged for more than 1 month, Tokyo's critical care bed utilization rate (new standard) is likely to remain 80% or less
■Case A
■Likely to become stable at 50% or less if the decrease in infections continues to be stable (Cases B and C)
