Updates on prediction of new infections, severe cases, etc.

Optimistic scenario: Vaccination steadily increases from now on. Flows of people do not come back.
Pessimistic scenario: Vaccination level stays the same. Flows of people come back in March (the data is based on that of last year)
Input actual data as-needed. The data of 2/14 does not include the effect of three consecutive holidays because it is the data until 2/10.
In Tokyo, the flows of people on 2/10 (Thursday) drop by more than 5%. Need to focus on whether the number of new positive cases will drop due to factors such as the weather (snow) (Reference: Dr. Ohsawa’s discussion on the fifth wave attenuation).
Input data of March is set by referring to 2021. It remains high partly due to the consideration of the trend of the flow and behavior of people coming back.

Prediction in the worst case (reddish brown) on the previous page

*The definition of the number of seriously ill patients is that of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government(https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/monitoring)