Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology
Tokyo: New positive cases
(Update only the reported number of new positive cases)
Optimistic scenario: Vaccination steadily increases from now on. Flows of people do not come back.
Pessimistic scenario: Vaccination level stays the same. Flows of people come back in March (the data is based on that of last year)
Input actual data as-needed. The data of February 14 does not include the effect of three consecutive holidays because it is the data until February 10.
Input data of March is set by referring to 2021. The numeric sequence remains high partly due to the consideration of the trend of the flow and behavior of people coming back.
Right figure: From Toyo Keizai Online; effective reproduction number (generation time is set to 2 days) gradually decreases from 1.14 on February 1. The lowest is 0.94 (February 14). Increase-decrease may change due to a change of a few percentage points in the flows of people. Focus on the trend after the three consecutive holidays.
Tokyo: Number of newly hospitalized patients, number of seriously ill patients
Prediction in the case of pessimistic scenario (reddish brown) in the previous page
*Accuracy is lower compared with the number of new positive cases, number of new positive cases and number of seriously ill patients (the residual is larger in terms of value).
Estimation may not be able to fully reflect the deterioration in a patient’s condition such as complications, as well as the number of new positive cases.
Inflow of BA2 subvariant
As of February 18, about 0.3% of the infected people are assumed to be infected with BA2 (1/300; approximated from the significant digit of the reported number of Tokyo).
The assumption is 1.5 times stronger infectability and the same generation time as BA1
*Projection example based on the assumption (lower accuracy than other predictions).
If the generation time of BA2 is shorter, it will be smaller