Analysis
・Understanding the relationship among infection, the economy and human flow is important in a pandemic.
・Especially when considering ways to achieve both infectious disease control and socioeconomics.
・However, not much analysis has been done on these relationships.
・It is often assumed that if you control the flow of people, infections will start to decline, and that if you control the flow of people, the economy will stagnate.
・Even if the above two statements are correct, there has been little analysis or discussion of the specific degree to which suppression of human flow would lead to a decrease in infection and economic stagnation.
・This analysis: Periodic visualization of the correlation between past human flow and infection/economy in 47 prefectures
・Provides report and dashboard
・Report: https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html
・Dashboard:https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/995cceab-7e5a-486f-bb36-35c23c96cf3e
・Because correlation does not imply causation, this analysis has no direct policy implications. However, understanding the past correlations and monitoring future correlations may be meaningful for future policy discussions.
・Parameters/statistics to be presented will be changed as needed.
Description of Panel: 1st Row
・The presented charts are the number of new positives cases (+ week-over-week), economic activity, and human flow by prefecture
・Monthly demand-side and supply-side indicators (source series) are used as economic activity data, respectively.
・Demand Side: Regional Domestic Expenditure Index (RDEI)
・Supply Side: Industrial Production Index (IIP) *Note that the timing of the release of IIP varies by prefecture.
・Using Google Mobility weekly average for human flow data
Description of Panel: 2nd Row
・The presented charts are historical human flow data and scatter plots of new positive cases week-over-week and economic activity indicators.
・Because there is a lag before trends in the human flow show up as changes in the number of new positive cases, a 2-week lag is used for the week-over-week comparison.
・A single regression line is plotted to visualize the correlation
・Two lines show new positive cases week-over-week, one using the entire sample and the other eliminating outliers with a week-over-week of 10 or more.
・Note that the two overlap if there is no sample with a week-over-week of 10 or more.
Description of Panel: 3rd Row
・The presented charts are historical human flow data and trend in correlation coefficients for the number of new positive cases week-over-week and economic activity indicators.
・How to read charts (example)
・Recent 8 months: The value for October 2021 corresponds to the correlation coefficient of 2 parameters from March 2021 to October 2021 (8 months) Note)The same applies to 12 months.
・Entire period: October 2021 values correspond to correlation coefficients for the two parameters from January 2020 to October 2021
・Because there is a lag before trends in the human flow show up as changes in the number of new positive cases, a 2-week lag is used for the week-over-week comparison.
