Excess suicides due to Covid-19 #3

Date: 2022.07.19
Researcher: Taisuke Nakata
Organization: Graduate School of Economics, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

Analysis

・Estimation of how many suicides have increased as a result of COVID-19
　・The number of hypothetical suicides in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic was calculated using the pre-COVID unemployment rate predictions and mathematical models of a private think tank.
　・Past dates used in the calculation
　　・2021: Jul 20, Aug 10, Sep 7, Oct 5, Nov 6, and 2022: Feb 6, Mar 8, Apr 12, May 13, Jun 13
　　・https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html

Result 1

・Approximate 7,570 excess suicides from March 2020 to March 2022
　・Of these, approx. 1,240 cases can be explained by the rising unemployment rate

・Many of the additional suicides due to the COVID-19 pandemic are younger generations
　・Most in their 20s
　　・Females in 20s: approx. 1,035 people, Males in 20s: approx. 725 people
　・Child suicides are also on the rise
　　・Females under the age of 20: approx. 260 people, Males under the age of 20: approx. 85 people
　　・Females under the age of 20: approx. 260 people, Males under the age of 20: approx. 85 people
　・Suicides among the elderly are also increasing
　　・60 years old and over (total of males and females): approx. 1,645 people

Result 1：Robustness

A model is considered to be robust if its output and forecasts are consistently accurate even if one or more of the input variables or assumptions are drastically changed.
Model robustness is checked by performing calculations for cases where age/gender are not taken into account.

Result 2

・Life expectancy lost due to additional suicides caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is as much as life expectancy lost due to COVID-19 infections

　・Life expectancy lost due to additional suicides caused by the pandemic
　　・319,000 years
　　・Equivalent to life expectancy of 5,060 25-year-old women (average life expectancy of approx. 63 years)
　・Life expectancy lost due to direct deaths caused by COVID-19 infections
　　・324,000 years
　　・Equivalent to life expectancy of 5,140 25-year-old women (average life expectancy of approx. 63 years)

Details

Unemployment rate and unemployment rate projections before the pandemic

Excess suicides due to the pandemic (Total: male and female)

Approximate 7,570 excess suicides from March 2020 to March 2022

Distribution by age (Total: male and female)

Distribution by age (Male)

Distribution by age (Female)

Distribution by age (Compared with deaths due to COVID-19 infections)

Distribution by age (Distribution of life expectancy lost)

Excess Suicides Among Children

Excess suicides of minors during the pandemic

Excess suicides of the elderly (60-69 years old) during the pandemic

Excess suicides of the elderly (70-79 years old) during the pandemic

Excess suicides of the elderly (80+) during the pandemic

Conclusion

・Analysis Details
　・Batista, Fujii, and Nakata (2021): COVID-19 and Suicides in Japan

・This document analyzes the number of suicides, but the COVID-19 pandemic has also impacted the number of deaths from a variety of other causes
　・Reference materials: Excess and Exiguous Deaths Dashboard in Japan
　　・https://exdeaths-japan.org/graph/weekly, https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/from-idsc/493-guidelines/9748-excess-mortality-20jul.html

・A paper analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicides in Japan
　・Tanaka and Okamoto (2021): “Increase in suicide following an initial decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.” Nature Human Behavior
　　・Summary available in Japanese：https://www.tmghig.jp/research/release/cms_upload/japanese.pdf