Analysis
・Estimation of how many suicides have increased as a result of COVID-19
・The number of hypothetical suicides in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic was calculated using the pre-COVID unemployment rate predictions and mathematical models of a private think tank.
・Past dates used in the calculation
・2021: Jul 20, Aug 10, Sep 7, Oct 5, Nov 6, and 2022: Feb 6, Mar 8, Apr 12, May 13, Jun 13
・https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html
Result 1
・Approximate 7,570 excess suicides from March 2020 to March 2022
・Of these, approx. 1,240 cases can be explained by the rising unemployment rate
・Many of the additional suicides due to the COVID-19 pandemic are younger generations
・Most in their 20s
・Females in 20s: approx. 1,035 people, Males in 20s: approx. 725 people
・Child suicides are also on the rise
・Females under the age of 20: approx. 260 people, Males under the age of 20: approx. 85 people
・Females under the age of 20: approx. 260 people, Males under the age of 20: approx. 85 people
・Suicides among the elderly are also increasing
・60 years old and over (total of males and females): approx. 1,645 people
Result 1:Robustness
A model is considered to be robust if its output and forecasts are consistently accurate even if one or more of the input variables or assumptions are drastically changed.
Model robustness is checked by performing calculations for cases where age/gender are not taken into account.
Result 2
・Life expectancy lost due to additional suicides caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is as much as life expectancy lost due to COVID-19 infections
・Life expectancy lost due to additional suicides caused by the pandemic
・319,000 years
・Equivalent to life expectancy of 5,060 25-year-old women (average life expectancy of approx. 63 years)
・Life expectancy lost due to direct deaths caused by COVID-19 infections
・324,000 years
・Equivalent to life expectancy of 5,140 25-year-old women (average life expectancy of approx. 63 years)
Excess suicides due to the pandemic (Total: male and female)
Approximate 7,570 excess suicides from March 2020 to March 2022