Excess suicides due to Covid-19 #4

・Estimation of how many suicides have increased as a result of COVID-19
　・The number of hypothetical suicides in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic was calculated using the pre-COVID unemployment rate predictions and mathematical models of a private think tank.

　・Past dates used in the calculation
　　・2021: Jul 20, Aug 10, Sep 7, Oct 5, Nov 6, and 2022: Feb 6, Mar 8, Apr 12, May 13, Jun 13, Jul 13
　　・https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html

・Approximate 8,090 excess suicides from March 2020 to June 2022
　・Of these, approx. 1,260 cases can be explained by the rising unemployment rate

・Many of the additional suicides due to the COVID-19 pandemic are younger generations
　・Most in their 20s
　　・Females in 20s: approx. 1,090 people, Males in 20s: approx. 745 people
　・Child suicides are also on the rise
　　・Females under the age of 20: approx. 280 people, Males under the age of 20: approx. 95 people
　　・Excess suicides among females under the age of 20 remains high after the autumn of 2020. Excess suicides among males under the age of 20 is low after the autumn of 2020.
　・Suicides among the elderly are also increasing
　　・60 years old and over (total of males and females): approx. 1,930 people

A model is considered to be robust if its output and forecasts are consistently accurate even if one or more of the input variables or assumptions are drastically changed.
Model robustness is checked by performing calculations for cases where age/gender are not taken into account.

・Life expectancy lost due to additional suicides caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is as much as life expectancy lost due to COVID-19 infections
　・Life expectancy lost due to additional suicides caused by the pandemic
　　・339,000 years
　　・Equivalent to life expectancy of 5,380 25-year-old women (average life expectancy of approx. 63 years)
　・Life expectancy lost due to direct deaths caused by COVID-19 infections
　　・330,000 years
　　・Equivalent to life expectancy of 5,240 25-year-old women (average life expectancy of approx. 63 years)

・Analysis Details
　・Batista, Fujii, and Nakata (2021): COVID-19 and Suicides in Japan

・This document analyzes the number of suicides, but the COVID-19 pandemic has also impacted the number of deaths from a variety of other causes
　・Reference materials: Excess and Exiguous Deaths Dashboard in Japan
　　・https://exdeaths-japan.org/graph/weekly, https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/from-idsc/493-guidelines/9748-excess-mortality-20jul.html

・A paper analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicides in Japan
　・Tanaka and Okamoto (2021): “Increase in suicide following an initial decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.” Nature Human Behavior
　　・Summary available in Japanese：https://www.tmghig.jp/research/release/cms_upload/japanese.pdf

・Taisuke Nakata is supported by JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI), Project Number 22H04927, the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society at the Japan Science and Technology Agency, COVID-19 AI and Simulation Project (Cabinet Secretariat), the Center for Advanced Research in Finance at the University of Tokyo, and the Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

・Past and present policy analysis and research
　・https://www.bicea.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
　・https://covid19-icu-tool.herokuapp.com/
　・https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html