Economic Loss in under Covid-19: International Comparison

・Analysis
　・Comparison of Japan's Economic Activities during the Coronavirus Crisis with Other G7 Countries and Asian Countries


・Key Points
　・The degree of economic decline in Japan at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis tended to be relatively small compared to other G7 and Asian countries.
　・Japan's economic activity since 2021 has tended to be relatively weak compared to other G7 countries and Asian countries.
　　・This reflects the fact that Japan's potential growth rate is low in the first place.
　・As for cumulative economic losses in 2020 and 2021, Japan is "about in the middle" among other G7 and Asian countries. Some countries suffered more economic damage than Japan, some less.
　・Japan tended to be lower than other G7 and Asian countries in terms of cumulative coronavirus deaths per capita in 2020 and 2021.

■As for cumulative economic losses in 2020 and 2021, Japan is "about in the middle" among other G7 and Asian countries.
■Japan tended to be lower than other G7 and Asian countries in terms of cumulative coronavirus deaths per capita in 2020 and 2021.

■As for cumulative economic losses in 2020 and 2021, Japan is "about in the middle" among other G7 and Asian countries.
■Japan tended to be lower than other G7 and Asian countries in terms of cumulative coronavirus deaths per capita in 2020 and 2021.

■The degree of economic decline in Japan at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis tended to be relatively small compared to other G7 and Asian countries.
■Japan's economic activity since 2021 has tended to be relatively weak compared to other G7 countries and Asian countries.
　■This reflects the fact that Japan's potential growth rate is low in the first place.

■The degree of economic decline in Japan at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis tended to be relatively small compared to other G7 and Asian countries.
■Japan's economic activity since 2021 has tended to be relatively weak compared to other G7 countries and Asian countries.
　■This reflects the fact that Japan's potential growth rate is low in the first place.

・Countries covered: Japan, G7 countries, Sweden, Australia, and Asian countries
　・Quarterly GDP: Japan, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, South Korea, India, China, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines
　・Monthly GDP: Countries with monthly indexes among countries with quarterly GDP (Japan, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, South Korea, India)
・To compare GDP trends in developed countries and between Asian countries and Japan
・Source of the data
　・Quarterly GDP (ex-Japan): Global Economic Monitor, The World Bank
　・Quarterly GDP (Japan): "GDP (expenditure side) and demand items" (Cabinet Office)（https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/data/data_list/sokuhou/files/2022/qe221/gdemenuja.html）(used on May 18, 2022)
　・Monthly GDP index: OECD (2022), Composite Leading Indicators, https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MEI_CLI (last cited: 2022/05/07).
　・Trend lines were created independently based on the above data.
　・Coronavirus death numbers: WHO COVID-19 Dashboard. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2020. Available online: https://covid19.who.int/ (last cited: Feb. 19, 2022). “Dong E, Du H, Gardner L. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Inf Dis. 20 (5): 533-534. doi: 10.1016/S 1473-3099 (20) 30120-1 ”
　・Population (2019 statistics used): United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019, Online Edition. Rev. 1.
・Trend creation method
　・Quarterly GDP: A linear regression model of time and quarterly GDP is created from the values for the 9 years (36 periods) from 2011 to 2019 to calculate the deviation from quarterly GDP in 2020 and beyond.
　・Monthly GDP: The quarterly GDP in 2015 is set at 100 to form the monthly GDP from January 2016 to December 2019 using the Index of Monthly GDP Trends (OECD, Composite Leading Indicators). Created a linear regression model of time and monthly GDP. We also determined the deviation between the value of quarterly GDP from 2016 to 2019 and the value of monthly GDP for the same period formed, then created a linear regression model of that value and time. The average of the two models is used as the trend, and the deviation from the monthly GDP after 2020 is calculated using the same method as before. The reason for the complexity of the method used to create the monthly GDP trend is that the OECD, Composite Leading Indicators is used as the indicator for monthly GDP instead of monetary values, which requires estimating monetary values based on quarterly GDP, and the method used to estimate the trend is considered optimal in comparison with past GDP trends.