・We present forecasts for medical demand during the 7th Wave (Tokyo, Osaka, Kanagawa, Okinawa)
・Analysis is along the lines of “if the number of new positive cases is this, the number of hospitalized patients, the number of severely ill patients and the number of deaths will be this.”
・“The number of new positive cases will probably be this” is not subject to analysis.
・Such projections exist for some regions (e.g. Hirata & Gomez Lab., Nagoya Institute of Technology; Kurahashi Laboratory, University of Tsukuba)
・Based on information on the number of infections, the number of hospitalized patients, the number of severely ill patients and the number of deaths by age group and vaccination history during the 6th wave, we make rough forecasts of the rate of hospitalization, the rate of severe illness and the case fatality rate during the 7th wave, and use this information to forecast demand for medical treatment.
・We share reference materials and specific images that would be of use in discussing “how far to tolerate the spread of infections and allow society to function.”
・The rate of severe illness, the case fatality rate and the hospitalization rate are likely to be slightly lower compared to the 6th wave, but it is unlikely they will be significantly lower.
・“Forecasts of the Rate of Severe Illness, the Case Fatality Rate and the Rate of Hospitalization during the 7th Wave” (Somei Miyashita, Taisuke Nakata and Wataru Okamoto), https://www.bicea.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/policy-analysis-1/
・In the basic scenario, it is about 0.8 to 0.9 times the level of the 6th wave, and in the optimistic scenario, it is about 0.4 times.
・We cannot exclude the possibility that the rate of severe illness, etc., during the 7th wave will be higher compared to that during the 6th wave.
・In the pessimistic scenario, the rate of severe illness, etc., are about 1.8 to 2.2 times the level of the 6th wave.
・If there is a high proportion of elderly people among positive cases, a rapid decline in vaccine efficacy, and the potential for a high rate of severe illness with the BA.5 variant, the results will come closer to the pessimistic scenario.
・The rate of hospitalization and rate of severe illness in Tokyo have increased rapidly in the last 2 to 3 weeks.
・We will pay close attention to future trends.
・It should be noted that during past waves, the hospitalization rate and rate of severe illness tended to be higher in the initial stage of the wave.
・https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/files/NakataOkamoto_ICUDeath_20220613.pdf
Forecasts of the rate of hospitalization, rate of severe illness and case fatality rate
Forecasts of the rate of hospitalization, rate of severe illness and the case fatality rate during the 7th wave (Tokyo)
(*) It should be noted that these are estimates based on the average number of days hospitalized.
For details of the method of estimation and the scenario, see “Forecast of severe illness rate, case fatality rate and hospitalization rate during the 7th wave (revised version).” https://www.bicea.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/policy-analysis-3/
Forecast for hospital beds: Tokyo
Tokyo (trends in the rate of hospitalization, rate of severe illness and case fatality rate)
* Values adjusted by multiplying the rate of hospitalization as we made the number of newly positive cases the denominator.
The actual rate of severe illness, case fatality rate and rate of hospitalization are expected to be somewhat lower than in the 6th wave.
Post Verification:
The rate of severe illness followed optimistic scenario.
The case fatality rate followed basic scenario.
The rate of hospitalization was between basic scenario and pesimistic scenario.
Tokyo (assuming the peak of the 7th wave is 1.5 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Tokyo (assuming the peak of the 7th wave is 2 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Tokyo (assuming the peak of the 7th wave is 3 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Forecast for hospital beds: Osaka
Osaka (trends in the rate of hospitalization, rate of severe illness and case fatality rate)
* Values adjusted by multiplying the rate of hospitalization as we made the number of newly positive cases the denominator.
Note: It should be noted that the optimistic, basic and pessimistic scenarios were adapted from the results of analysis in Tokyo.
Osaka (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 1.5 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Osaka (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 2 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Osaka (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 3 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Forecast for hospital beds: Kanagawa
Kanagawa (trends in the rate of hospitalization, rate of severe illness and case fatality rate)
* Values adjusted by multiplying the rate of hospitalization as we made the number of newly positive cases the denominator.
Note: It should be noted that the optimistic, basic and pessimistic scenarios were adapted from the results of analysis in Tokyo.
Kanagawa (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 1.5 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Kanagawa (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 2 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Kanagawa (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 3 times that of the 6th wave)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Forecast for hospital beds: Okinawa
Okinawa (trends in the rate of hospitalization, rate of severe illness and case fatality rate)
* Values adjusted by multiplying the rate of hospitalization as we made the number of newly positive cases the denominator.
Note: It should be noted that the optimistic, basic and pessimistic scenarios were adapted from the results of analysis in Tokyo.
Okinawa (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 1.5 times that at present)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Okinawa (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 2 times that at present)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
Okinawa (assuming the infection peak of the 7th wave is 3 times that at present)
The dotted line shows the number of hospital beds secured as of July 13.
Consistent with the scenario on p.6
Red line: pessimistic
Green line: basic
Blue line: optimistic
・Taisuke Nakata is supported by JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI), Project Number 22H04927, the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society at the Japan Science and Technology Agency, COVID-19 AI and Simulation Project (Cabinet Secretariat), the Center for Advanced Research in Finance at the University of Tokyo, and the Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
