Analysis
■Analysis updated to incorporate June 2021 suicides, unemployment rate, and latest private sector unemployment rate projections
■Estimation of how many suicides have increased as a result of the COVID pandemic so far
■Hypothetical suicides in the absence of the COVID pandemic, calculated using pre-COVID unemployment rate projections and mathematical models
■Estimation of the future impact of the COVID pandemic on suicide
■Using the discrepancy between the latest private-sector forecasts of the unemployment rate and the pre-COVID forecasts
■For details about the analysis method, please refer to "COVID Pandemic Suicide and Post-Pandemic Suicide"
■https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/files/FujiiNakata_Suicides_Slides_20210720.pdf
■In Japan, suicide and the unemployment rate have a strong positive correlation
■Suicides rise as unemployment rises
■The correlation is especially strong for males
■This has been understood for a long time
■Chen, Choi, and Sawada (2009): How is suicide different in Japan? [Japan and the World Economy]
Suicide During and After the COVID Pandemic
■Estimation of the relationship between suicides and unemployment rates from historical data
■Trend = number of suicides that would have been observed if the unemployment rate predicted before the pandemic had been realized, is shown in blue lines
■Actual number of suicides indicated by red dots
■The number of suicides that can be explained by the increase in unemployment rate is shown in green lines
■Calculating the extent to which the actual number of suicides (red dots) deviates from the trend (blue lines)
■At the same time, calculating how much of the deviation from the trend can be explained by an increase in the unemployment rate (degree of deviation between green and blue lines)
Actual Unemployment Rate and Pre-COVID Projections
Green: Actual Unemployment Rate
Blue: Pre-COVID Unemployment Rate Projections
Actual Suicides and Pre-COVID Model Predictions
Red: Actual number of suicides
Green: Number of suicides that can be explained by increased unemployment
Blue: Number of suicides consistent with pre-COVID unemployment projections (trend)
Where the difference between the green line and the blue line can be explained by the increase in unemployment
Where the difference between the red dot and the green line cannot be explained by the increase in unemployment
■Step 1: Calculate the difference between the pre-Covid unemployment rate forecast before and the latest unemployment rate forecast
■This difference can be interpreted as "unemployment rate shock due to the Covid pandemic"
■It is standard practice in macroeconomics to use changes in people's expectations as shocks in the analysis
■Step 2: Calculate the additional future suicides predicted from the unemployment rate shock calculated in Step 1
Latest Unemployment Rate Forecasts by Private Economists
Green: Actual Unemployment Rate
Red: Latest Unemployment Rate Projections
Blue: Pre-COVID Unemployment Rate Projections
Where the difference between the green and blue lines can be explained by the increase in projected unemployment
Number of Future Suicides Predicted by Model
Red: Actual number of suicides
Green: Expected suicides consistent with the latest unemployment projections
Blue: Expected suicides consistent with pre-COVID unemployment projections (trend)
Where the difference between the green and blue lines can be explained by the increase in projected unemployment
Additional Future Suicides
■Possibility of underestimation
■The unemployment rate alone explains only 40% of the increase in suicides to date
■If this ratio continues to be true, there will be about 4,500 additional future suicides
