Background
■If we would like to consider how to respond to the sixth wave from the perspective of “balancing infectious disease control and socioeconomic activities,” it is important to monitor the rate of serious illness and mortality during the sixth wave.
■A guideline is to “continue social, economic, cultural, and educational activities as much as possible while avoiding a strain on the medical system.”
■Note that there is also a guideline that “a relative emphasis on infection control is good for the economy in the medium to long term.”
■Analysis of a state of emergency before the start of vaccination: https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html
■Note that it is not necessarily a robust guideline in the situation after the second vaccination has been completed.
■“Post-vaccination world: Long-term Outlook for COVID-19 Infection and Economic Activity”
https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/files/FujiiNakata_LongTermOutlook_20210831.pdf
■As COVID-19 becomes weaker, monitoring the rates of serious illness and mortality is important when considering COVID-19 strategies from a medium- to long-term perspective.
■The rights and wrongs of tracing and isolating close contacts depend on the rates of serious illness and mortality with the virus.
■Decision of whether COVID-19 should be classified as a Class 5 equivalent or Class 5 depends on the rates of serious illness and mortality with the virus.
Analysis
■At present, the serious illness rate cannot be determined in a timely manner at some regions.
■To calculate the serious illness rate, it is necessary to grasp not only the number of seriously ill patients but also the number of new seriously ill patients, the number of people discharged from hospitals, and the number of mortalities.
■The former figures are usually announced, but the latter is not always accurately (and timely) known or announced by some local governments.
■This reference presents an estimate of the “Rate of Serious Illness to date during the Sixth Wave.”
■To be updated periodically at: https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/ICUDeathMonitoring.html
■Currently, estimates are available only for Tokyo.
Estimation of the Serious Illness Rate during the Sixth Wave
Estimation of the Serious Illness Rate during the Sixth Wave (by age)
Estimation of the Mortality Rate during the Sixth Wave (by age)
Trend in the Estimation of the Serious Illness Rate during the Fifth Wave
Trend in the Estimation of the Mortality Rate during the Fifth Wave
