Background and Analysis
■The COVID-19 crisis has had various effects on Japanese society.
■Healthcare, economy, education and culture
■This document investigates what kind of impacts the COVID-19 crisis has had on the number of marriages
■Pre-COVID-19 trend
■Trend during the COVID-19 pandemic
■Demographic statistics up to 2020 (confirmed figures)
■Demographic statistics from January to September 2021 (approximate figures)
■Demographic statistics from October to November 2021 (preliminary report figures)
Important Points
■Clear downtrend in the number of marriages before the COVID-19 crisis
■Declining population and non-marriage
■The number of marriages falls significantly below that downward trend during the COVID-19 pandemic
■The number of marriages in 2020 (confirmed figure) was 526,000 (50,000 marriages (8.7%) below the trend line from 2010).
■The number of marriages (estimated figure) in 2021 was 504,000 (500,000, 507,000) (61,000 marriages (10.8%) below the trend line from 2010).
■Number of marriages lost due to COVID-19 (estimated figure): 111,000 (108,000 marriages, 115,000 marriages)
■Broadly speaking, two reasons are conceivable for the decrease.
■(1) Increase in economic anxiety (2) Decrease in encounters
■The facts that the older the population, the shorter the period of courtship before marriage, and that the number of marriages among the elderly has decreased significantly more than that among the younger population during the COVID-19 pandemic are consistent with the second hypothesis.
■It is also necessary to keep in mind that other factors may also have been important (including factors completely unrelated to the COVID-19 crisis).
■It is not possible to say much about the level of contribution of each factor based on this analysis alone, but it will be important to deepen understanding in the future.
■The question “why did marriages decrease” will have an impact on the future outlook and policies that should be implemented (including whether the government should implement policies).
Decrease in the Number of Marriages
Decrease in the Number of Marriages (By Age)
Factor 1: Decrease in Population
Factor 2: Increase in the Rate of Non-Marriage
Number of Marriages in 2020
Decrease in the Number of Marriages in 2020 (By Age)
Monthly Marriages in 2021: Data Handling
■Update of demographic statistics
■Preliminary report (2 months after the survey)
■Approximate figures (5 months after the survey)
■Confirmed figures (September of the year following the survey)
■Monthly data for 2021 as of February 7, 2022
■Number of marriages (overall): Confirmed figures to December 2020, approximate figures for January to September 2021 and preliminary figures for October and November 2021
■There are discrepancies between the preliminary figures, approximate figures and confirmed figures (there is seasonality).
■This analysis has calculated the number of monthly marriages equivalent to the confirmed figures to November 2021 taking these discrepancies into account.
■Number of marriages (overall): Calculated based on approximate figures for January to September and preliminary figures for October and November
■Discrepancies between the approximate figures and confirmed figures are very small at less than 0.5% on average for whichever month, so the figures for January to September will be close to the confirmed figures.
■Because the discrepancies between the approximate figures in the preliminary report and the confirmed figures are about 2.5% on average, the confirmed figures for October and November will actually vary.
Number of Marriages in 2021
Courtship Period
Zexy Marriage Trend Survey 2021 Metropolitan Area
https://souken.zexy.net/data/trend2021/XY_MT21_report_06shutoken.pdf
People aged 30 years old or older tend to have a shorter courtship period until marriage than people aged 29 years old or younger.
→ If a decrease in encounters leads to a decrease in the number of marriages, that decrease may have a greater impact in advance on the number of marriages among people aged 30 years old or older.
Month-on-Month Comparisons (vs. 2017) of the Number of Marriages (By Age)
Opportunities for Encounters
Ratios* of Confirmed Figures, Approximate Figures and Preliminary Report Figures for Monthly Number of Marriages
Trend in Intention to Marry
Trend in the Desired Age of Marriage
Trend in the Proportion of People Who Want to Marry Within One Year
Opportunities for Encounters (p.15): Category Details
●Work, school, hobbies: Company, school, clubs, hobbies, part-time jobs
●Introduction, singles party: Friend’s introduction, singles
●Marriage activity: Marriage activity event, marriage consultation center, marriage activity website/app
●Looking for love: In the city, on holiday, looking for love website/app, SNS, other internet
●Childhood friends, etc.: Introduction by family or relatives, childhood friends, matchmaking
●Other: Other, no response
Zexy Marriage Trend Survey 2021 Metropolitan Area
https://souken.zexy.net/data/trend2021/XY_MT21_report_06shutoken.pdf
Trend in Average Courtship Period
