Background and Analysis
■The COVID-19 crisis has had various effects on Japanese society.
■Healthcare, economy, education and culture
■This document investigates what kind of impacts the COVID-19 crisis has had on the number of marriages and the number of births.
■We updated “Marriage During the COVID-19 Pandemic” and “Childbirth During the COVID-19 Pandemic” (Chiba, Nakata, February 8, 2022)
■https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/files/ChibaNakata_Marriage_20220208.pdf
■https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/files/ChibaNakata_Birth_20220208.pdf
■Trend during the COVID-19 pandemic
■Demographic statistics up to 2020 (confirmed figures)
■Demographic statistics from January to September 2021 (approximate figures)
■Demographic statistics from October to December 2021 (preliminary report figures)
Important Points (Marriage)
■The number of marriages falls greatly below the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic
■The number of marriages in 2020 (confirmed figure) was 526,000 (50,000 marriages (8.7%) below the trend line from 2010).
■The number of marriages in 2021 (estimated figure) was 502,000 (499,000, 504,000) (62,000 marriages (11.1%) below the trend line from 2010)
■Estimate on February 8: 504,000 marriages (500.000, 507,000) (61,000 marriages (10.8%) below the trend line from 2010)
■Number of marriages lost due to COVID-19 (estimated figure): 113,000 (111,000 marriages, 116,000 marriages)
Difference from Last Estimate (Marriages)
December estimate
Last time: avg: 42,000 marriages (max: 43,000 marriages, min: 40,000 marriages)
This time: avg: 40,000 marriages (max: 40,000 marriages, min: 39,000 marriages)
Estimated figures for 2021
Last time: avg: 504,000 marriages (max: 507,000 marriages, min: 500,000 marriages)
This time: avg: 502,000 marriages (max: 504,000 marriages, min: 499,000 marriages)
Childbirth During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Important Points (Childbirth)
■The number of births in 2021 (estimate based on confirmed values) may be about 810,000 people.
■This is about 44,000 people (5.2%) below the trend (estimate as of February 8: about 50,000 people (5.7%) below the trend).
■We can say that the “impact of the COVID-19 crisis” is limited at present as the figures for 2019 and 2020 were also 30 to 40,000 people below the trend.
■In the medium to long-term, the decrease in the number of marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a decrease in the number of births.
■That is if there is no increase in the future sufficient to just make up for the decrease in marriages during this two-year period.
■The number of “marriages lost during the COVID-19 pandemic” is about 110,000. If these are not made up for, the number of “births lost” will be about 210,000 people.
Difference from Last Estimate (Births)
December estimate
Last time: avg: 63,000 people (max: 67,000 people, min: 59,000 people)
This time: avg: 67,000 people (max: 67,000 people, min: 66,000 people)
Estimated figures for 2021
Last time: avg: 808,000 people (max: 820,000 people, min: 799,000 marriages)
This time: avg: 813,000 people (max: 821,000 people, min: 806,000 people)
