Suicides during COVID-19 period

■Estimation of how many suicides have increased as a result of COVID-19
　■Hypothetical suicides in the absence of the COVID pandemic, calculated using pre-COVID unemployment rate projections and mathematical models of private think tank
　■Estimates for the period from March 2020 to August 2021
　　■Past Analysis: "Suicides during and after COVID-19 period" (July 20, August 10, September 7)
　　■https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html

■Excessive suicide from March 2020 to August 2021 is approximately 4,400 people
　■Portion that can be explained by the increased unemployment rate is 950

■Additional suicides due to the COVID pandemic include many younger people
　■Total: About 4,400 people
　　■Females in the 20s: About 690 people
　　■Males in the 30s: About 500 people
　■There are few elderly people

■Years of life expectancy lost from additional suicides due to the COVID pandemic are "almost the same or slightly more" than years of life expectancy lost due to COVID-19 infections
　■Years of life expectancy lost from suicides due to COVID-19
　　■About 190,000 years
　　■Equivalent to the life expectancy of 3,050 25-year-old women (average life expectancy of about 63 years)
　■Years of life expectancy lost due to direct death from COVID-19 infection
　　■About 170,000 years
　　■Equivalent to the life expectancy of 2,730 25-year-old women (average life expectancy of about 63 years)

■The analysis here is Preliminary. The analysis will be further refined moving forward, however the general conclusion is expected to remain the same
　■Batista, Fujii, and Nakata (2021): COVID-19 and Suicides in Japan

■This document analyzes the number of suicides, but the COVID pandemic has also impacted the number of deaths from a variety of other causes
　■Reference: Japan's excess and undercounted deaths dashboard
　　■https://exdeaths-japan.org/graph/weekly,https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/from-idsc/493-guidelines/9748-excess-mortality-20jul.html

■A paper analyzing the impact of the COVID crisis on suicide in Japan
　■Tanaka and Okamoto (2021): “Increase in suicide following an initial decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.” Nature Human Behavior
　　■Summary in Japanese：https://www.tmghig.jp/research/release/cms_upload/japanese.pdf

From "(May 21) Impact of hosting the Olympics on infection: a quantitative analysis"
https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/files/FujiiNakata_Olympics_Slides_20210521.pdf

■Analysis updated weekly on Tuesdays
　https://Covid19OutputJapan.github.io/JP/

■Questions, requests for analysis, etc.
　■dfujii@e.u-tokyo.ac.jp
　■taisuke.nakata@e.u-tokyo.ac.jp